Manchester City have been ranked as the third favourites to win this season's Champions League according to a new supercomputer projection. The analysis from Opta gives City a 12.3 per cent chance of lifting the trophy in Enzo Maresca's debut campaign. The league phase of the competition begins this Tuesday.
City's strong domestic form provides a solid foundation for their European ambitions. They currently sit first in the Premier League with a perfect record of three wins from three games, scoring seven goals and conceding just two. This positive start comes ahead of a significant away fixture against Manchester United on September 13th. Fans can track the team's progress on the official standings and fixtures pages.
What are Manchester City's Champions League chances?
Opta's model, which ran 10,000 simulations, places Manchester City firmly among the leading contenders. Their 12.3 per cent probability puts them behind only Arsenal (20.9%) and Bayern Munich (19.4%). Barcelona are fourth with an 8.2 per cent chance. This projection arrives as City navigate the early stages of a new managerial era under Maresca. The club will have to manage this campaign without several key players, including Iliman Ndiaye, Nico O'Reilly, and Jérémy Doku, who are currently sidelined. The latest squad availability is always listed on the injuries page.
Who are the other leading contenders?
Arsenal's status as top favourites is built on their strong recent history. They were runners-up in the 2024 final and have a 50 per cent simulated chance of reaching the semi-finals this time. Bayern Munich, last crowned champions in 2020, are close behind. The reigning champions, Paris Saint-Germain, find themselves in an unusual position. Having won back-to-back titles to match Real Madrid's feat, they are only fifth favourites this season with a 7.1 per cent chance. Opta said: "PSG have just a 7.1 per cent chance of clinching a third successive title." The French club's poor start to the domestic season, their worst in 19 years, has clearly impacted the statistical model.
How do other Premier League clubs rate?
The supercomputer offers a mixed outlook for England's other representatives. Liverpool are ranked sixth with a 6.1 per cent chance as Andoni Iraola prepares for his first Champions League campaign in charge. More surprisingly, Manchester United are given only a 3.8 per cent chance on their return to the competition, a figure almost identical to Real Madrid's 4.4 per cent. The Spanish giants are ranked seventh, while Inter Milan are the defending runners-up.
What is the context for this season's competition?
This season's tournament follows a dramatic 2024 final where Arsenal overcame PSG in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw in Budapest. Barcelona's best showing since their 2015 triumph has been two semi-final appearances, in 2019 and 2025. Aston Villa enter as Europa League winners. For Manchester City, the focus is on integrating Maresca's ideas while maintaining their formidable domestic form, which has already yielded a +5 goal difference. The team's next challenge is the away trip to Old Trafford on September 13th.
